Parameters

Here is the possibility of developing COVID-19, if:

  1. Neuchatel cases are 60 per 100,000 inhabitant.
  2. R0 is between 0.9 and 1.5, with a target of 1.1.
  3. Wedding was on October 3rd (ended 4th at 04:00 am).
  4. Been in proximity of 8 people without a mask.
  5. Been distant to about 92 people, without a mask.

Model

Parameter (detailed)

For the case above, for instance, we used the population defined by the following data (in the format [95% (or > 95%) conf. min, average, 95% (or >95%) conf. max]) – note that this is a rough approximate only:

Friends - close contacts:
  covid rate per 100K: [55, 60, 65]
  r0: [1.0, 1.1, 1.5]
  reduction measures: 0%
  count: 8

Other people with distance:
  covid rate per 100K: [55, 60, 65]
  r0: [1.0, 1.1, 1.5]
  reduction measures: [59%, 79%, 90%]
  count: 92